CI VIEW: Chevron faces twin Black Swans of low oil prices, Covid-19 at Tengiz (Kazakhstan)

Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan (CI GCA) – San Ramon, CA-based Chevron Corporation

[NYSE: CVX] is facing the formidable challenges of a Covid-19 outbreak and collapsed

oil prices in developing and expanding the giant Tengiz oil and gas field in Kazakhstan.

Plunging oil prices has already forced Chevron management to revisit the terms and

costs of its project to further expand production at Tengiz while the Covid-19 pandemic

is forcing the oil giant to take extraordinary measures to maintain uninterruptable

production at the field.

[Chevron Chairman and CEO John S. Watson filmed by Capitol Intelligence/CI GCA using CI Glass avoiding questions on Chevron merger with Italy’s ENI or other oil and gas operator. Washington, DC. March 23, 2017]

Notwithstanding measures, the Kazakh-American joint company

«TengizChevroil» was not able to avoid a serious Covid-19 outbreak at Tengiz.

Kazakh President Kassym Jomart Tokayev said the Tengiz field has become a major

focal point of Covid-19 infection for the Central Asian nation.

“The Tengiz field in the Atyrau region (west of Kazakhstan), where 1,222 cases of

coronavirus infection were registered, became a major focus of infection,” President

Tokayev said in a speech strongly rebuking his government’s handling of the Covid-19

crisis.

Total number of people are working in the Tengiz energy sector — including shift

workers coming from other parts of the country – is about 14,000.

On Tuesday, Kazakh authorities announced the reintroduction of “hard quarantine” of

four weeks in effort to slow down the rapid increase in deadly Covid-19

pneumonia cases. The Kazakh government previously declared a state of

emergency from March 16 to May 11.

Since the beginning of the pandemic in Kazakhstan, over 21,000 people have been

infected with the coronavirus, more than 13,000 have recovered, and 183 patients

have died, according to government data.

The Tengiz field, which is “young” by industry standards, brings Kazakhstan almost a

third of the total annual oil production. In 2019, Kazakhstan produced 90.4 million tons of oil, of which Tengiz accounts

for 28.6 million tons of oil.

Almost 50 pct of Kazakhstan annual budget depends on oil and gas revenues.

The twin ‘Black Swans” of Covid-19 and low oil prices is placing Chevron and Kazakh

government’s ambitious Future Growth Project (FGP) in serious doubt.

Chevron and the Kazakh government planned to increase Tengiz annual oil production

to 38-40m tons from current levels of 28m.

Tengizchevroil LLP government affairs officer Rzabek Artygaliev recently briefed

local reporters that the FGP is 77% completed.

Nurlan Zhumagulov, general director of the Union of Oilfield Service Companies of

Kazakhstan, said the issue of maintaining jobs and wages is especially acute in the

current situation.

“Today, in addition to the project for the future expansion of Tengiz, we are not looking

at other projects,”-   Union of Oilfield Service Companies of Kazakhstan Chairman  

Rashid Zhaksylykov said at a news conference, referring to Kazakhstan’s other giant

fields such as offshore Kashagan with Italy’s ENI and Karachaganak.

[ExxonMobil Chairman CEO Darren Woods, China National Petroleum Company Chairman Wang Yilin and ENI SpA Claudio DesCalzi filmed by Capitl Intelligence/CI GCA using CI Gass holding trilateral meeting during World Gas Conference in Washington, DC. June 26, 2018]

Kashagan shareholders ENI (16.81%), Royal Dutch Shell (16.81%), France’s Total S.A.

(16.81%), ExxonMobil (16.81%), KazMunayGas (16.81%), China National Petroleum

Corporation (8.4%), Japan’s Inpex (7.56%)l have only discussed possible expansion of the

Offshore field while a decision to expand the Karachaganak field is expected by year-

end, Zhaksylykov said.

“Now the business is waiting. Current oil prices do not allow oil companies to invest in

additional capital projects. Therefore, today the main business is aimed at expanding

the Tengiz field. And I want them to start construction work as soon as possible. Tens of

thousands of people look and hope to resume work,” Zhumagulov said, adding.

“If the project is postponed until next year, many companies will receive less profit and,

accordingly, workers will be left without their expected salary.”

Collapsed oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic threatened the possibility of new

investment projects, Rashid Zhaksylykov noted.

“Not a single (oil and gas) project in Kazakhstan was complete without the participation

of investors and their money. And in such a difficult time, governments are unlikely to

invest,” he said.

[Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPIC) His Excellency Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo speaks to Capitol Intelligence/CI GCA using CI Glass with Hess Corporation CEO John Hess on OPEC member hedging oil production and using on-the-exchange trading at Center for Strategic and International Strategic Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC. December 13, 2016]

Kazakhstan, according to the agreement under OPEC +, should reduce the annual

volume of oil production by 4 million tons, from 90 million to 86 million.

Kazakhstan, according to the agreement under OPEC +, should reduce the annual

volume of oil production by 4 million tons, from 90 million to 86 million, according to

Kazakh Energy Minister Nurlan Nogaev.

Nogaev said any decision on oil production will be made within the framework of

OPEC+ and that Kazakhstan is interested in seeing higher oil prices on world markets.

By Kulpash Konyrova in Nur-Sultan, Kazkahstan and edited by PK Semler in Washington, DC.

For information please call +1-202-549-3399 or email pks@capitolintelgroup.com

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