WASHINGTON/MILAN (CI UKRAINE) – Poland is preparing to significantly raise the diplomatic stakes against Russian President Vladimir Putin by calling for the removal of the Black Sea Fleet from Ukraine as a condition for easing crushing economic sanctions for Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

[Polish Ambassador to the United States, Marek Magierowski, filmed by Capitol Intelligence/CI Ukraine using CI Glass interviewed by The Carlyle Group co-Chairman and co-Founder David M. Rubenstein of the Economic Club of Washington DC on April 20, 2022]

The new demand for the withdrawal of all Russian troops came during an interview of Poland’s Ambassador to the United States, Marek Magierowski, by Carlyle co-founder and co-chairman David Rubenstein of the Economic Club of Washington DC on April 20, 2022.

“I will give you some very specific conditions. These are not yet official, and this is my personal view. If we want to even start thinking about easing up those restrictions or lifting part of the sanctions, there are some obvious conditions, Magierowski told Rubenstein, adding. “First of all, Russia has to withdraw all its troops, not just from Ukraine proper, but also from Crimea and all those territories that were annexed in 2014.”

Magierowski’s demand for complete withdrawal of the Russian military in Crimea, including the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, is a major diplomatic escalation on the part of Poland as it would mark a Russian military defeat even surpassing the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-5, a defeat that led to the eventual downfall and execution of Tsar Nicholas II.

Notwithstanding his statement as “not yet official”, Majierowski who served as Poland’s Deputy Foreign Minister, prior to his appointment to Washington, leaves no doubt that there is any light between himself and Polish president Andrzej Duda.

Kremlin watchers, deemed reliable, including former US Ambassador to Moscow and current CIA director Bill Burns, believe that Russian president Vladmir Putin’s impulsive decision to annex Crimea in 2014 stemmed from disinformation from his inner cabinet. The United States and NATO wanted to kick out Black Fleet from Crimea after the Euromaidan protest ousted Russian kleptocratic ally, Viktor Yanukovych, from power.

The primary goal of the current military invasion of Ukraine is to secure a defensible land bridge between Crimea and mainland Russia so water and other resources cannot be blocked by Ukraine.

The new hardline demand by Poland, which will most probably be joined by Baltic NATO members, will never be acceptable to Russia, with or without Putin, as the Sevastopol is one of Russia’s most important naval bases, a warm water port created by Tsarina, Catherine the Great in 1784 following the Russo-Turkish war.

The person to bridge the gap between NATO hawk members such as Poland and NATO doves such as Germany, Bulgaria and Greece will be Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi.

During a news conference with the Foreign Press Association of Italy held on March 31, Draghi said that both Russia and Ukraine have accepted Italy as a mediator in any peace talks and that he continues to seek to arrange a bilateral meeting between Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin.

[Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi discussing outcome of phone conversation with Russian President Vladmir Putin, Italy as a mediator in future talks between Putin Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian gas supplies during news conference with the Stampa Estera (Foreign Press Association) of Italy on March 31, 2022]

Draghi’s role as the peacemaker between Russia and Ukraine will come to the forefront when he holds his first White House meeting with President Joe Biden around May 10. Draghi is also expected to travel to Kiev for a face-to-face meeting with President Zelensky in Kiev.

 A spokesman for Prime Minister Draghi confirmed the Oval Office meeting with Biden around May 10 but said a meeting between Draghi and Zelensky in Kiev is still in the planning stages.

At the same time Poland is upping the stakes on any future peace talks, Russia is threatening to annex all southern Ukraine by connecting the breakaway republic of Transnistria of Moldova to Donbass and Russia proper.

Dmitry Suslov, the director of the Kremlin-funded and approved Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies think tank, told Milan’s Corriere della Sera newspaper that Russia could accept a peace deal where Ukraine recognizes the annexation of Crimea the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk along with neutrality and demilitarization. 

Otherwise, Suslov says citing Kremlin officials, Russia will continue to seek more Ukrainian territory such as the port city of Odessa. 

“From our point of view, if the Russian victory in Donbass is unequivocable, it would be easier for Kiev to accept an agreement,” Suslov said. 

While Suslov said such a peace agreement would basically cement the post-2014 status quo, it is highly unlikely Ukraine would, or could even accept such a deal, considering the massive civilian casualties and destruction estimated in the hundred of billions of dollars.

Suslov also revealed that Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov never imagined that the United States would freeze Russia’s central bank foreign currency reserves and remove Russian banks from the Swift interbank payment system.

The former Bank of Italy governor and European Central Bank (ECB) president is also negotiating a delicate line between Ukraine’s demand that the EU immediately boycott Russian gas and countries such as Italy and Germany that are dependent on Russia’s Gazprom for roughly 40 percent of their energy consumption.

Germany’s Bundesbank just released a report estimating a total embargo of Russian oil and gas imports would lead to a 5 pct decline in German GDP and a lost of output of EUR 165b while inflation would rise to 8.8 from 7.3% in 2022.

Hopefully, Prime Minister Draghi can re-earn his Super Mario moniker from saving the world from the 2008 financial meltdown by pioneering a new path to overcome the irreconcilable differences between Russia and Ukraine and divergent interests within the Atlantic Alliance.

By PK Semler in Washington, DC and Milan, Italy with editing by Nigel Wright in Los Angeles.
For more information, please email pks@capitolintelgroup.com

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