WASHINGTON, DC (BBN) — (Updated on September 10, 2019 to add interview with IBM EVP and Management Board Member Dr. John E. Kelly III) The ongoing U.S-China trade war squarely places President Trump’s biggest supporters — American coal workers — on the other side of the barricades against some of the president’s biggest detractors such as Silicon Valley based tech barons such as Alphabet [NASDAQ: Goog] co-founders Larry Page and Sergei Brin.
[Google Chief Internet Evangelist and VP for Global Policy Vint Cerf speaks to Capitol Intelligence/BBN using CI Glass on the impact on Alphabet {NASDAQ: GOOG} on the ongoing trade war between the US and China ahead of a forum titled ”Driving Economic Growth Through Assistive Tech and Workplace Inclusivity” at the National Press Club of Washington, DC. September 4, 2019.]
Vinton Cerf, the American scientist credited as one of “father of the internet” and currently Google’s Chief Internet Evangelist and vice president for global policy, acknowledged that Google is squarely in the middle of the U.S. China trade war being fought by President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping over technology transfer issues.
Earlier this year, President Trump directly threatened the economic viability of China’s Huawei Technologies Co by unilaterally banning U.S. tech companies such as Google from transferring technology such as its market leading Android operating system to China’s global tech champion.
Even after temporarily rescinding the technology transfer ban, Trump later reignited the US-China tech trade dispute by ordering US companies to stop manufacturing in China under the auspices of US national security laws barring trade with “rogue nations.”
Cerf, who serves as Google’s chief diplomat, noted that the company has had a highly tempestuous relationship with China ever since Google first pulled out in 2010 after Beijing ordered wide scale restrictions on its main breadwinner, Google Search.
Google also enraged Beijing leadership by prematurely, albeit in hindsight, by agreeing to stop supplying Huawei and ZTE with Android technology when Trump first made transfer technology ban edict in June.
“Google should have waited a little bit before announcing it would stop working with Huawei. Its decision to shoot so quickly from its hip has made it some very bad enemies in Beijing,” an international trade lawyer in Washington, DC said.
Huawei dependency on US technology from Google’s Android operating system to Intel semiconductors triggered a heated debate at the highest levels of the Chinese government why there remains such a wide technology gap between the United States and China, a Hong Kong investment banker said.
The banker said that leaping over the United States as a technology leader is a cornerstone of Chinese national policy and the Huawei/Google incident was a “stark reminder” of how wide the tech gap between the US and China remains.
While tech giants such as Apple [NASDAQ:APPL], Intel [NASDAQ:INTCC] and Google will ultimately suffer heavy financial losses as Chinese tech companies seek to outsource non-US controlled suppliers, US coal miners may end up the winners in the US-China trade war.
The US coal industry, especially its some 57,000 workers, was one of the key factors in electing President Donald Trump in 2016 as they single handedly swung the purple states of Ohio and Pennsylvania to Trump after his democratic opponent, Hillary Clinton, all but vowed to end the US coal industry if elected president.
Speaking at the National Press Club of Washington, DC on September 4., 2019, United Mine Workers of America (UMWA) President Cecil E. Roberts said the US coal workers have never faced as much personal animosity today from such a large sections of the US population, especially among climate change advocates.
[United Mine Workers of America President Cecil E. Roberts speaks to Capitol Intelligence/BBN using CI Glass on Chinese investment in US coal companies and potential UMWA endorsement of Donald Trump at the National Press Club of Washington, DC. September 4, 2019.]
The same US coal miners — who were instrumental in handing the Democratic primary and subsequently presidential election to John F. Kennedy in 1960 — are now painted as climate change denying pariahs by large swaths of the Democratic party, Roberts said.
He also noted that the UMWA was the first fully integrated union, already accepting Black American members since its foundation in 1890 and that the bigotry against coal workers — as against the descendents of slavery — is nothing new in America.
For Mr. Roberts, a West Virginia native and Vietnam veteran, such hostility against coal workers is rooted more in bigotry and entirely ignores the fact that the coal industry is global with an expected 1,000 new coal fired plants being built on top of 2,000 operating today.
While global demand for coal is estimated at about 7.5 billion tonnes, of which 4 billion consumed by China alone, US coal workers are facing devastation as a series of high-profile bankruptcies by large coal operators such as Arch Coal, Patriot Coal, and Peabody Energy are leaving coal workers without jobs, medical insurance and pension benefits.
However, Roberts noted that President Trump tariffs on Chinese steel and other metal is starting to bring a noticeable boost to metallurgical coal as “people now realize we can make steel again in America.”
While not directly advocating for Chinese direct investment in US coal operators, Roberts noted that Chinese coal operators are already cutting down on their domestic work force due to cost restraints and efficiency issues.
The owners of American coal mines do not have many qualms about selling to Chinese or other foreign investors. The than CEO of Massey Energy, Don Blankenship, told this journalist he would have no qualms about selling his company to the Chinese or Indians after hosting a pre-Trumpian “Friends for America” rally in the heart of West Virginia coal country in September 2009.
US coal workers are the best example of a growing, and possibly irreparable divide, between the Democratic party and American blue-collar workers.
The best example of this divide between coal workers and the well-paid tech workers is seen in the presidential campaign of Taiwanese-American tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang and his platform of minimum income to lost in US climate and tech revolution.
[Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang speaks to Capitol Intelligence/BBN using CI Glass on climate change advocacy losing blue collar votes at University of New Hampshire student event in Durham, New Hampshire. August 26, 2019]
Yang, who ranks among the top four running for the democratic nomination, offers an extremely dystopian outlook for the future of labor in the United States as his proposed minimum income is needed to offset lost economic opportunities as human labor such as coal mining is replaced by AI and new climate tech jobs.
Yang is highly pessimistic that the US workforce can adapt to the new tech revolution, noting that only 8% of the American workforce is employed in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Math) related work fields.
Meanwhile, other countries such as Estonia are already teaching third graders IT skills at third grade, making the former Soviet satellite a global leader in cybersecurity, said Tallinn-based developer, Devtailor co-founder Janno Stern.
While Yang views are widely shared by other climate tech barons such as Tesla’s Elon Musk and democratic candidates such as Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders — the same climate change views are interpreted by millions of blue-collar workers that the democratic party and Silicon Valley is happy to see them on the street.
The tech company national leadership in bridging the skills divide in minority communities is Armonk, New York-based IBM (NYSE: IBM) with its P-TECH (Pathways in Technology Early College High Schools) apprenticeship program to economically depressed communities such as the Carver Vocational Technical High School in West Baltimore.
The phenomenally successful program allows high school students to earn a post-secondary degree in IT technology while completing their secondary education. P-TECH has already grown to 200 schools in eight states and 18 countries including Australia, Morocco, Algeria, Poland, South Korea and Taiwan.
[IBM EVP and Management Board Member Dr. John E. Kelly III speaks to Capitol Intelligence/BBN using CI Glass on IBM P-Tech ) program at Carver Vocational Technical High School in West Baltimore during a MIT Future of Work conference at the National Press Club of Washington, DC. September 10, 2019]
“IBM CEO Gina Rometty has shown corporate leadership by personally pushing P-TECH and winning friends in both the GOP and Congressional Black Caucus while Silicon Valley is on the antitrust hot seat,” a DC-based competition attorney said.
It is mainly the worldview of Yang and the democratic nominees for president that UMWA’s Roberts decided to hold a national news conference to bring home the fact that his union may not endorse any democratic nominee for president.
It remains to be seen if the UMWA will follow the footsteps of the Teamsters truckers union and endorse President Trump as Jimmy Hoffa endorsed Richard Nixon against George McGovern in 1972.
Speaking to Capitol Intelligence, AFL-CIO Secretary-Treasurer Liz Shuler said the UMWA can make its presidential endorsement independent of the endorsement of the AFL-CIO. However, Shuler said she considered it unlikely that UMWA’s Roberts would have the UMWA make an official endorsement of Trump in 2020.
In fact, UMWA union members noted that the coal mining union backed Republican Wendell Willkie against FDR in 1940 and some members are even calling for the UMWA to break from the AFL-CIO over the perceived hostility by the democratic party against coal miners.
By PK Semler in Washington, DC. For more information please call +1-202-549-3399 or email: pks@capitolintelgroup.com.
Copyright of Capitol Intelligence Group – Turning Swords in Equity (®)