Budapest, Hungary (CI UKRAINE) — As Peter Magyar steps into his role as Hungary’s incoming Prime Minister, the first critical test of how far he willing to break from the illiberal; authoritarian policies of ousted PM Viktor Orban is what he will do with the controlling shares in two major national enterprises: the oil company MOL and the pharmaceutical group Gedeon Richter.
On April 12, the Hungarian people came out in force to throw out Orban, with Peter Magyar Tisza party winning a super majority parliament after an unprecedented 80% turnout, with large numbers of Hungarian expatriates travelling home to vote such as a Zurich-based executive with blockchain concern Chain IQ and noted Hungarian poet and writer Peter Zilahy who drove from his home in Venice to Budapest.
[Hungarian expat Balint who travelled to Budapest from Zurich speaks to Capitol Intelligence/CI Ukraine using CI Glass on the meaning of Peter Magyar’s historic victory over Viktor Orban and visit to the infamous pro-MAGA Mathias Corvinus Collegium MCC “”election party.”
The tech executive and Zilahy said they returned to their home country because they wanted to end Orban’s 16-year regime and the economic disaster he has caused for the EU member and not that they have any great affinity for Magyar.]
“We came to end the mafia state that Hungary is today,” the tech executive said.
The stakes, circa 20% of MOL and 20 % of Gedeon Richter, were transferred in 2020 by Orban to “national conservative” institutions, such as the notorious pro-Putin, pro-Vance Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC) think tank/university and the Maecenas Universitatis Corvini Foundation. MMC operates tuition-free universities across Hungary as well as a Brussels-based think tank/lobby group.
MCC, and its closely allied Danube Institute, has not only served as Orban’s political machine for his Fidesz party in his native Hungary but also a tool to takeover foreign groups as the once Reagan Republican Heritage Foundation in Washington DC and the likes of Tucker Carlson, the Lega Party of Matteo Salvini, Le Pen of France and the Reform Party of Nigel Farage.
Orban’s most successful recruit seems to US Vice President JD Vance, who travelled to Budapest to support Orban and was even hosted by the MMC for fireside chat moderated US expat and Orban-funded Hungarian Institute of International Affairs President, Gladden Pappin.
[OSCE international election observation mission led by Sargis Khandanyan, Special Co-ordinator and leader of the short-term OSCE observer mission; Pablo Hispan, Head of the delegation from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE); Rupa Huq, Head of the delegation from the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly (OSCE PA) and Eoghan Murphy, Head of the ODIHR questioned by Capitol Intelligence/CI Ukraine whether the Observation misssion will include findings concerning the transfer $1.7 bn of Hungarian owned stakes in oil company MOL and pharmaceutical concern Gedeon Richter to Viktor Orban controlled think tank/university Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC)]
Even before taking office, Magyar must telegraph that his government will take concrete stakes to re-open the Hungarian economy after Orban and his Fidesz party made the country inhospitable to qualified foreign investors in favor of Chinese EV automotive concerns and China linked private equity firms such as Chi Fu Investment Fund Management.
The objective first test for Peter Magyar’s with his considerable political capital will be to prove to the US and European business community that Hungary is open for business by fully privatizing Gedeon Richter and MOL or that he will pursue an Orban-lite policy by merely replacing Orban loyalists on state-controlled enterprises.
The Budapest and Warsaw stock exchange listed Gedeon Richter, with a Eur 5bn market capitalization and 73% free float, is the obvious first choice to privatize and bring desperately needed foreign investment and new jobs to “English patient” of the European Union.
Gedeon Richter, recognised for its strong research and development capabilities and highly skilled workforce, is considered an attractive acquisition prospect for major pharmaceutical companies such as Novartis (Basel, Switzerland), Abbvie (Chicago), and Teva (Israel). A senior Abbvie executive based in Zurich stated that he was prohibited from comments on any potential interest regarding its manufacturing partner, Gedeon Richter.
Gedeon Richter head of investor relations, Robert Rethy, declined to comment when contacted by email.
An excellent example of how the sale of Gedeon Richter would transform the Hungarian economy was when Novartis acquired Slovenia’s Lek, a manufacturer of cheap generic drugs, for EUR 876m in 2002. Since the acquisition, Slovenian pharmaceutical exports skyrocketing from $2bn in 2010 to $15bn n 2022 and employing 12,000 workers or 5% of the Slovenian population, about the same per capita level as Switzerland.
MOL, a state-controlled oil company with both upstream and downstream operations, may draw interest from major firms like Chevron, BP, Italy’s Eni, and Shell because of its valuable oil and gas concessions in Kurdistan. Oil from Kurdistan can be efficiently shipped through a pipeline connecting the region to the Turkish port of Ceyhan.
Although the flow of oil has often been limited or stopped by Baghdad, it could resume fully if significant pressure comes from President Donald Trump.
This pipeline, which also includes MOL’s extensive activities in Azerbaijan, offers Europe an alternative route for energy supplies to the Strait of Hormuz, helping reduce Hungarian and broader European dependence on Russian oil and gas.
Other low hanging fruit for privatization is Budapest Airport which Orban renationalized in 2024 by taking over an 80% stake held by a consortium made up Singapore’s GIC, Canada’s Public Sector Pension Investment (PSP) and Caisse de Depots e Placement du Quebec (CDQP). The controversial French construction concern Vinci remains a shareholder with a 20% stake.
Budapest Airport would be an attractive target from Benetton/Blackstone infrastructure venture Mundys (Aeroporto Di Roma); Venice-based SAVE SpA (Marco Polo) and Flughafen Zurich AG, the owner and operator of Kloten Airport.
While investment bankers and M&A lawyers are eager for buyside opportunities in post-Orban Hungary, institutions like the US DFC, EBRD, and Italy’s CDP remain cautious due to concerns about politically exposed persons (PEPs) among potential investors.
A MCC board member said the institute has no intention on handing back its stake in MOL and Gedeon Richter to the Hungarian state and that the assets were transferred legally under the Kekva law allowing the transfer of state assets to “foundation performing public tasks.”
“I am not certain,” stated Boris Kalnoky, international media spokesman and head of MCC Media School, when questioned about MOL and Gedeon Richter stakes. “It may be helpful to consult Gemini, Grok, or another large language model regarding the implications if the Kekva law is voided, as they could provide relevant insights,” he suggested.
Nonetheless, shareholders of Gedeon Richter and MOL, who have anticipated a Magyar victory since January 2026, are unlikely to remain passive if MCC or other Orban allies to prevent any moves toward liberalization.
According to a US attorney involved in investor class action cases in Delaware, American investors holding shares in Gedeon Richter and MOL are ready to pursue legal proceedings against MCC board members or affiliates in US courts, should it become necessary.
A running joke in Budapest during the elections was the true winner of the April 12 election was Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, as Orban’s Fidesz party plastered posters with face of Zelensky juxtaposed to Magyar.
For Ukraine, the uncontrivable election defeat of Orban was more than welcomed news from the war-torn nation, that has been battling Orban’s defacto veto of both the EU and NATO since Russia’s unprovoked aggression of February 24, 2022.
[Servant of the People Party International Secretary and Deputy Chairman for Ukraine EU membership Vadym Halaichuk speaks to Capitol Intelligence/CI Ukraine using CI Glass at the news conference of the @OSCE election observation mission on the importance of the victory of Peter Magyar and removal of Viktor Orban for Ukraine for NATO and the country’s membership into the European Union.]
Russia’s significant influence over Orban is thought to have been solidified in 2014, when Rosatom, Russia’s nuclear power company, signed a contract to construct two VVER-1200 nuclear reactors (PAK II). The project was supported by a EUR 10 billion Russian state loan, which funded 80 percent of the development. The United States, EU and NATO seemed to have lacked the political will to outright veto the construction of a Russian nuclear plants in an EU and NATO member country.
Vadym Halaichuk, international secretary of Ukraine’s Servant of the People Party, says Orban’s defeat renews Ukraine’s hopes for EU membership and a NATO free from Putin’s veto.
He also said Ukraine, which almost matches France for the percentage of its energy that it derives from nuclear power, is more than willing to join forces with Hungary to provide nuclear alternatives to Rosatom in the same way that Poland is working with Pittsburgh-based nuclear supplier Westinghouse.
Halaichuk participated in the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) International Election Mission for the Hungarian elections. In its April 13 report, the OSCE cited multiple election irregularities but did not confirm if it would investigate possible interference by the MCC and Maecenus Foundation.
The undoing of Orban’s economic illiberalism could make Hungary the fastest growing economy in the EU but also one of the most important trading partners of the emergent, EU member Ukraine.
By PK Semler in Budapest, Hungary. For more information, email pks@capitolintelgroup.com
Copyright of Capitol Intelligence Group – Turning Swords into Equity®